2022 ended with a whimper. At least, in terms of the Vancouver real estate market.

After a torrid surge in market activity through the COVID lockdown, it fell off significantly over the last year. This was brought about primarily by the Bank of Canada trying to get inflation under control by rapidly hiking the policy rate.

These higher interest rates are clearly having a big impact on both buyers and sellers of Vancouver real estate.

Sales fell to 246 which was -20.1% month-to-month and -47.4% year-to-year. This was also well below the 10-year average (-34.2%).

New Listings also dropped to 246 which was -67% from last month and -38% from a year ago. It was also -17.8% from the 10-year average.

Total Active Listings reached 2423 or -26.5% from the previous month and only -1.7% from a year ago. This was +10.4% vs the 10-year average.

In the meantime we are seeing the decrease in demand of the last year impacting prices. Every property type in Vancouver fell last month...from East Van condos which...

November is historically a quieter month in terms of real estate market activity. As we approach the holidays sales and listings cool off...and this year is no exception.

Vancouver home sales dropped -11.4% from the previous month and a whopping -53.6% from a year ago. The 476 were also -37.2% below the 10-year average.

Obviously, this was not just a typically quiet November. It's the inflationary backdrop that is giving real estate buyers pause in recent months. As inflation continues to increase, the Bank of Canada has made clear so will interest rates.

That action continues to most significantly impact the demand for real estate (and thus sales). And while demand has been stifled so has (to a lesser extent) supply.

New listings (1,076) were -17% from the previous month and -20.9% from a year ago. Total active listings (3303) were down -6.1% from October and -1.7% from last year. Both of these supply side metrics were essentially on par with their 10-year averages.

Meanhwile, prices are...

Sales were up (+11.9%) last month over the previous month, but down (-45.5%) from a year ago....and down a very significant -32% from the 10-year average.

We typically see a bump in sales in October over September, so I wouldn't read too much into the monthly increase. What's most significant is that big drop from the 10-year average...so demand clearly remains well below typical levels for this time of year.

New Listings (-4.1% m-to-m) and Total Active Listings (-5.1% m-to-m) both edged lower from the previous month...and both are around 7% off the 10-year average.

These supply numbers indicate that supply is also shrinking. In fact, this is the fourth month in a row that we saw a decline in Total Active Listings (from a high of 3945 back in June). This is unusual at this time of year as the fall season usually sees a bumb in listing activity.

Combined, these numbers tell me that both buyers and sellers are hesitant to act in today's market. Economic headlines and rising interest rates...

If you haven't been in a sensory deprivation tank for the last few months, you probably have some idea of how slow Vancouver's real estate market has become.

...increasing economic uncertainty and rising interest rates are at the very root of that decrease in activity. It's a significant change of pace from the last couple of years, but it's important to put it into perspective.

Thankfully, our market cannot be explosive ALL the time. It needs to pause, rest and refresh before taking another leg up.

That's what's happening right now...and it offers an opportunity for a new generation of buyers to step into the market.

So...let's take a closer look at these numbers, shall we?

Sales fell to 480 (from 579). That's a drop of -17% from last month and 49% from a year ago. It's also -28.7% below the 10-year average (trending up from last month in relation to this average).

While demand declined, supply rose. It's an overall marginal increase in supply and it makes sense based on the time of year (we...

For the last few months we've been seeing real estate activity slowing in Vancouver. This past August continued that trend, making it four in a row.

What's causing this slowdown? Predominantly, it's rising interest rates...and the commensurate saber-rattling of the Bank of Canada.

With money getting more expensive, and warnings from the Bank of Canada, it's giving pause to market participants on both sides of the transaction.

Sales hit 579 this past month. While that was a very slight rise over the previous month (+1.8%) it was down significantly from a year ago (-35%) and also -32.8% from the 10-year average.

New Listings meanwhile also slowed to just 1,063. That's down -15.7% from the previous month and -19.4% from last year. Total active listings also fell to just 3,319 down -12.3% from last month and -11.1% from a year before.

This consistent slowdown of activity is easing pressure on prices. The result is that while prices are still generally higher today than they were a year ago (for ...

I always find it interesting how quickly market sentiment shifts.

Barely three months ago we were still in the midst of a heated buying frenzy. Money was cheap and confidence in our market was high...buyers were frustrated at the speed of the market and the lack of supply

A few short months later and, if you are watching media reports, you'd be convinced that the bottom has fallen out.

...and while market sentiment is definitely downbeat, the market hasn't fallen apart. There is most definitely a change in buyer sentiment. Caution is in the air and the fear of missing out (FOMO) no longer enters the equation.

Buyers in todays market are finding an opportunity. Putting money to work carefully when they find good value...and enjoying a lack of significant competition.

But that caution is having an effect...particularly on buyer demand. In June sales (713) in Vancouver were down 31% from the 10-year average (21% from last month and 33% from last year).

Sellers are being cautious too. There's...

May 2022 saw Vancouver's real estate market continue to back off the torrid pace of the last two years. Rising interest rates are having their effect on market sentiment, and buyer's are taking their time to digest the shifting landscape.

The last month saw Sales dip to 899 (-7.42% month-to-month and -25.64% year-over-year). While this is also down -15.6% from the 10-year-average, it puts us back to what would be considered more typical sales levels for this time of year.

While New Listings bumped up to 1,958 (+0.8% month-to-month) it did not result in a flood of new listings on the market. In fact, Total Active Listings (supply) reached 3,593 which was only slightly higher than the 10-year-average of 3,588.

The result is that prices are no longer getting pushed upwards. Buyers are able to take their time in purchasing. Making informed decisions based on reasonable due diligence. Meanwhile, sellers are having to be extremely careful about how they position themselves to make a successful sale....

The primary headline for the last month in Vancouver real estate is that demand returned to more historically "normal" levels.

Sales dropped to 971 from 1,298 the previous month. That's a -25.2% decline month-to-month and also a -26.4% decline from a year ago...all of which was +5.3% over the 10-year average of 922.

New listings also fell to 1,942 from 2,118. That's -8.3% from the previous month and -23.9% from a year ago. It was also -11.2% below the 10 year average.

Total active listings rose to 3,260 from 3,064. That was an increase of +6.4% from the previous month but -15.8% from a year ago. Compared to the 10 year average it was a decline of -6.2%.

We usually see demand increasing through the spring...so seeing it drop from March to April is a bit unusual. But...we all knew this moment would come. Especially given significant global economic uncertainty as well as a slew of government interventions.

Honestly, it's been a pleasant change so far...especially for potential home buyers....

March 2021 was a tough act to follow. 

A year ago, we set a record for the most number of sales in a single month. EVER.

March 2022 couldn't match that pace. With 1298 Sales we were down -15.7% from last year...rather respectable, I would say. It was also UP +26.4% from February and a considerable +24.5% over the 10-year average.

New Listings of 2,118 were down -14.4% from last year, UP +23.5% from last month and up +22.7% over the 10-year average.

Total Active Listings were up only 6.4% over the 10-year average.

That continues the trend that we've seen in recent months...high (and rising) demand with lower supply. 

As any student of economics knows, that's a recipe for rising prices. And, that's exactly what we have seen in the last few months. 

In fact, there were some VERY significant moves in valuation in March.

Specifically, East Van Townhouses saw a whopping increase of +6.82% IN A SINGLE MONTH. East Van Houses also saw a big increase of +3.85%.

Can this market continue? Possibly....