I always find it interesting how quickly market sentiment shifts.
Barely three months ago we were still in the midst of a heated buying frenzy. Money was cheap and confidence in our market was high...buyers were frustrated at the speed of the market and the lack of supply
A few short months later and, if you are watching media reports, you'd be convinced that the bottom has fallen out.
...and while market sentiment is definitely downbeat, the market hasn't fallen apart. There is most definitely a change in buyer sentiment. Caution is in the air and the fear of missing out (FOMO) no longer enters the equation.
Buyers in todays market are finding an opportunity. Putting money to work carefully when they find good value...and enjoying a lack of significant competition.
But that caution is having an effect...particularly on buyer demand. In June sales (713) in Vancouver were down 31% from the 10-year average (21% from last month and 33% from last year).
Sellers are being cautious too. There's a realization that now may not be the opportune time to list, and so we are seeing new listings slow. This past month new listings reached 1,636 which was on par for the 10-year average but down -16% from last month and -17% from the previous year.
...and that is the same story for the total supply on the market (active listings). The 3,655 is also right on the 10-year average...down just -1% from last month and -16% from last year.
The weakest segment of our market (as has long been the case) is Westside Houses and luxury properties...but the detached house market is overall relatively weak (at 8.65 months of inventory). Both the townhouse and condo markets (outside of the downtown core) are just barely hanging on to a seller's market.
I always say that predicting our market is guesswork. It's far too complicated a system to be able to predict with any accuracy...and I can point to endless market predictions that proved completely inaccurate (including my own).
However, if I was to make an educated guess of where we go from here...I foresee the next couple of months to likely slow even further. The summer months are often quieter in our market as we all focus on taking advantage of the good weather rather than buying or selling real estate.
If there's a turn in our market, it's likely to come in the fall...and it would likely be spurned by the Bank of Canada toning down their rhetoric regarding rising interest rates. At that point, buyers will quickly return to worrying about missing out once again...and once again market sentiment will seem to shift on a dime.