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May was another month of strengthening in the Vancouver real estate market. Once again, we moved away from the Buyer's Market of late 2022 and saw increasing demand along with very limited supply.
Sales rose to 985. This was a big increase (+34%) from last month, and well above (+9.6%) a year ago. This was is actually the first time since February 2023 that we have seen a year-over-year INCREASE in sales (985 vs 899).
It's also been a year since sales were actually above the 10-year average (April 2022). May makes the 4th month in a row that we've steadily moved closer to the 10-year average...and now just -1.75% below (985 vs 1003).
Meanwhile, there was no shortage of new listings. We saw a jump to 1806 New Listings in May. This was up (+36%) from last month but down (-7.8%) from a year ago. It was also basically right on the 10-year average (+0.7%).
Total Active Listings (supply) rose to 3,021. This was up (+3.3%) slightly from last month and signifcantly lower (-20.4%) than a year ago....
With listings continuing to languish, home sales in Vancouver continue to bounce back to more historical norms. While we are still below the 10-year average and last year, this rapid comeback has surprised many after seeing eight consecutive interest rate hikes.
There were 735 home sales in Vancouver in April. This was basically flat over the previous month (-0.8%) but down a fairly significant -24.3% over the previous year...and -20% from the 10-year average.
New Listings fell slightly to 1,327 (-4.3% month-to-month and -31.7% year-to-year). This was -21.7% from the 10-year average.
With steady sales and a decline in new listings, Total Active Listings fell to 2,833. This was -2% m-to-m and -18.2% y-to-y. But most significantly this was -14.3% from the 10-year average.
Over the last 4 months we've seen a steady trend of demand increasing toward the historical norm while supply decreases. This has been putting increasing pressure on prices as eager buyers compete for the limited supply of...
January was very quiet in the Vancouver real estate market.
That's not unusual. January is typically the slowest month of the year...but this last month was unusually slow relative to what we typically see.
ALL activity was well below the 10-year average. But it's sales (demand) that took the biggest dip in January. The 313 sales were -38.4% below the 10-year average (-15.2% m-to-m and -55.3% y-to-y).
New listings increased over December to 1,061 (+170.1% m-to-m and -27.4% y-to-y). This was also down significantly (-29.1%) vs the 10-year average.
Overall listing inventory rose slightly to 2,631 (+0.5% m-to-m and -2.3% y-to-y).
We continue to see more stability/strength at the lower price points in our market. We can see that detached homes continue to become more affordable while lower price points pricing has stabilized in recent months.
Are things going to get worse from here?
I don't believe so, no.
Here's why.
1. Seasonality - January is typically the slowest month for sales. That month...
November is historically a quieter month in terms of real estate market activity. As we approach the holidays sales and listings cool off...and this year is no exception.
Vancouver home sales dropped -11.4% from the previous month and a whopping -53.6% from a year ago. The 476 were also -37.2% below the 10-year average.
Obviously, this was not just a typically quiet November. It's the inflationary backdrop that is giving real estate buyers pause in recent months. As inflation continues to increase, the Bank of Canada has made clear so will interest rates.
That action continues to most significantly impact the demand for real estate (and thus sales). And while demand has been stifled so has (to a lesser extent) supply.
New listings (1,076) were -17% from the previous month and -20.9% from a year ago. Total active listings (3303) were down -6.1% from October and -1.7% from last year. Both of these supply side metrics were essentially on par with their 10-year averages.
Meanhwile, prices are...
Sales were up (+11.9%) last month over the previous month, but down (-45.5%) from a year ago....and down a very significant -32% from the 10-year average.
We typically see a bump in sales in October over September, so I wouldn't read too much into the monthly increase. What's most significant is that big drop from the 10-year average...so demand clearly remains well below typical levels for this time of year.
New Listings (-4.1% m-to-m) and Total Active Listings (-5.1% m-to-m) both edged lower from the previous month...and both are around 7% off the 10-year average.
These supply numbers indicate that supply is also shrinking. In fact, this is the fourth month in a row that we saw a decline in Total Active Listings (from a high of 3945 back in June). This is unusual at this time of year as the fall season usually sees a bumb in listing activity.
Combined, these numbers tell me that both buyers and sellers are hesitant to act in today's market. Economic headlines and rising interest rates...
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