Vancouver Real Estate – Monthly Market Update – Infographic – October 2022

Sales were up (+11.9%) last month over the previous month, but down (-45.5%) from a year ago....and down a very significant -32% from the 10-year average.

We typically see a bump in sales in October over September, so I wouldn't read too much into the monthly increase. What's most significant is that big drop from the 10-year average...so demand clearly remains well below typical levels for this time of year.

New Listings (-4.1% m-to-m) and Total Active Listings (-5.1% m-to-m) both edged lower from the previous month...and both are around 7% off the 10-year average.

These supply numbers indicate that supply is also shrinking. In fact, this is the fourth month in a row that we saw a decline in Total Active Listings (from a high of 3945 back in June). This is unusual at this time of year as the fall season usually sees a bumb in listing activity.

Combined, these numbers tell me that both buyers and sellers are hesitant to act in today's market. Economic headlines and rising interest rates...

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Vancouver Real Estate – Monthly Market Update – Infographic – September 2022
If you haven't been in a sensory deprivation tank for the last few months, you probably have some idea of how slow Vancouver's real estate market has become.

...increasing economic uncertainty and rising interest rates are at the very root of that decrease in activity. It's a significant change of pace from the last couple of years, but it's important to put it into perspective.

Thankfully, our market cannot be explosive ALL the time. It needs to pause, rest and refresh before taking another leg up.

That's what's happening right now...and it offers an opportunity for a new generation of buyers to step into the market.

So...let's take a closer look at these numbers, shall we?

Sales fell to 480 (from 579). That's a drop of -17% from last month and 49% from a year ago. It's also -28.7% below the 10-year average (trending up from last month in relation to this average).

While demand declined, supply rose. It's an overall marginal increase in supply and it makes sense based on the time of year (we...
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Vancouver Real Estate – Monthly Market Update – Infographic – August 2022
For the last few months we've been seeing real estate activity slowing in Vancouver. This past August continued that trend, making it four in a row.

What's causing this slowdown? Predominantly, it's rising interest rates...and the commensurate saber-rattling of the Bank of Canada.

With money getting more expensive, and warnings from the Bank of Canada, it's giving pause to market participants on both sides of the transaction.

Sales hit 579 this past month. While that was a very slight rise over the previous month (+1.8%) it was down significantly from a year ago (-35%) and also -32.8% from the 10-year average.

New Listings meanwhile also slowed to just 1,063. That's down -15.7% from the previous month and -19.4% from last year. Total active listings also fell to just 3,319 down -12.3% from last month and -11.1% from a year before.

This consistent slowdown of activity is easing pressure on prices. The result is that while prices are still generally higher today than they were a year ago (for ...
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Vancouver Real Estate – Monthly Market Update – Infographic – June 2022

I always find it interesting how quickly market sentiment shifts.

Barely three months ago we were still in the midst of a heated buying frenzy. Money was cheap and confidence in our market was high...buyers were frustrated at the speed of the market and the lack of supply

A few short months later and, if you are watching media reports, you'd be convinced that the bottom has fallen out.

...and while market sentiment is definitely downbeat, the market hasn't fallen apart. There is most definitely a change in buyer sentiment. Caution is in the air and the fear of missing out (FOMO) no longer enters the equation.

Buyers in todays market are finding an opportunity. Putting money to work carefully when they find good value...and enjoying a lack of significant competition.

But that caution is having an effect...particularly on buyer demand. In June sales (713) in Vancouver were down 31% from the 10-year average (21% from last month and 33% from last year).

Sellers are being cautious too. There's...

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Vancouver Real Estate – Monthly Market Update – Infographic – May 2022
May 2022 saw Vancouver's real estate market continue to back off the torrid pace of the last two years. Rising interest rates are having their effect on market sentiment, and buyer's are taking their time to digest the shifting landscape.

The last month saw Sales dip to 899 (-7.42% month-to-month and -25.64% year-over-year). While this is also down -15.6% from the 10-year-average, it puts us back to what would be considered more typical sales levels for this time of year.

While New Listings bumped up to 1,958 (+0.8% month-to-month) it did not result in a flood of new listings on the market. In fact, Total Active Listings (supply) reached 3,593 which was only slightly higher than the 10-year-average of 3,588.

The result is that prices are no longer getting pushed upwards. Buyers are able to take their time in purchasing. Making informed decisions based on reasonable due diligence. Meanwhile, sellers are having to be extremely careful about how they position themselves to make a successful sale....
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Vancouver Real Estate – Monthly Market Update – Infographic – April 2022

The primary headline for the last month in Vancouver real estate is that demand returned to more historically "normal" levels.

Sales dropped to 971 from 1,298 the previous month. That's a -25.2% decline month-to-month and also a -26.4% decline from a year ago...all of which was +5.3% over the 10-year average of 922.

New listings also fell to 1,942 from 2,118. That's -8.3% from the previous month and -23.9% from a year ago. It was also -11.2% below the 10 year average.

Total active listings rose to 3,260 from 3,064. That was an increase of +6.4% from the previous month but -15.8% from a year ago. Compared to the 10 year average it was a decline of -6.2%.

We usually see demand increasing through the spring...so seeing it drop from March to April is a bit unusual. But...we all knew this moment would come. Especially given significant global economic uncertainty as well as a slew of government interventions.

Honestly, it's been a pleasant change so far...especially for potential home buyers....

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Vancouver Real Estate – Monthly Market Update – Infographic – March 2022
March 2021 was a tough act to follow. 

A year ago, we set a record for the most number of sales in a single month. EVER.

March 2022 couldn't match that pace. With 1298 Sales we were down -15.7% from last year...rather respectable, I would say. It was also UP +26.4% from February and a considerable +24.5% over the 10-year average.

New Listings of 2,118 were down -14.4% from last year, UP +23.5% from last month and up +22.7% over the 10-year average.

Total Active Listings were up only 6.4% over the 10-year average.

That continues the trend that we've seen in recent months...high (and rising) demand with lower supply. 

As any student of economics knows, that's a recipe for rising prices. And, that's exactly what we have seen in the last few months. 

In fact, there were some VERY significant moves in valuation in March.

Specifically, East Van Townhouses saw a whopping increase of +6.82% IN A SINGLE MONTH. East Van Houses also saw a big increase of +3.85%.

Can this market continue? Possibly....
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Week 12 of the Vancouver Real Estate market saw things firm up after a slower week.

Sales and New Listings diverged for the first time in a while.

Sales were up to 281 (from 259), while New Listings dropped to 346 (from 421). Total Active Listings were flat at 2,801.

Our overall market moved further into a Seller's Market with 2.49 MOI (from 2.7).

I believe that we are seeing some consolidation in the market as we move through Spring Break. In fact, that's what I would largely attribute the lower New Listing numbers as seller's are holding off on launching new listings.

East Vancouver continues to lead with strength. East Van condos remain the hottest sub-market with just 1.36 MOI ,followed closely with East Van townhouses with just 1.4.

However, East Van houses made a move in the last week. Sales jumped from 30 to 50 and we had the lowest MOI in some time with just 2.11.

Westside houses were the slowest sub-market yest again. After seeing some strength in recent weeks, that sub-market fell...

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Week 11 of the Vancouver real estate market saw the market take a bit of a breather (March 13th - 19th, 2022). Activity levels by and large edged to the downside after ramping up through the first 2.5 months of the year.
 
Sales dropped to 259 (from 300). New Listings also fell to 421 (from 479)...while Total Active Listings were up slightly to 2,800 (from 2,772).
 
Combined, these numbers found us still well within a very hot Seller's Market with a Months-of-Inventory of 2.7 (up from 2.31). I repeat...despite this past week being a bit softer in terms of activity, we are still in a red-hot Seller's Market in nearly EVERY SINGL sub-market.
 
The drop in activity was fairly evenly distributed amongst the sub-markets...although, it could be said that the slow-down was slighlty more pronounced in East Vancouver (across all property types).
 
The hottest sub-market remains East Van condos with 1.98 MOI. That's despite a big drop in sales over the last week (37 from 62). Condos...
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The keyword for the last week of the Vancouver real estate market was CONSOLIDATION.

Leading into this week we had been a pretty regular and steady increase in market activity...both sales and new listings.

Sales edged slightly lower to 300 (from 316) while new listings rose slightly to 479 (from 477).

With total listing inventory rising to 2,772 (up from 2,688) we still find ourselves in an extremely strong Seller's Market with 2.31 MOI.

Condos continue to be the hottest market segment. Specifically, East Van condos where we had a red-hot 1.15 MOI this past week...but Westside (2.2 MOI) and Downtown (2.22 MOI) Condos were also hot.

Every sub-market is in a Seller's Market except for Westside houses. While that market has consistently trailed the rest of the city it HAS been strengthening. Not that long ago it languished in a strong Buyer's Market....but it's not moved to consistently be in a Balanced Market.

Tight market conditions continue. There is little choice in the market, but intense...

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